Never mind red or black, back green as Mike Greenaway picks this weekend’s United Rugby Championship winners…
Lions v Sharks in Johannesburg, 2.30pm on Saturday
This game is more difficult to predict. The Sharks have form on their side, while the erratic Lions have desperation and home-ground advantage in their favour. On their day, the Lions can beat anyone, while the Sharks are proving to have one of the most dangerous backlines in the tournament. I think it will be a high-scoring game, and there won’t be many points between the sides at the end.
Betting angle
The bookies are not totally sure who will win this one. The Lions are marginal favourites, and a R100 bet will earn a profit of R70. A bet on the Sharks to win will earn you R125, plus your R100 back. A safe bet for me is taking the Sharks on the +8.5 handicap, which means they will not lose by more than 8.5 points, and the bet still pays out if they win or draw. But the bookies give you shorter odds, and R100 will earn you R35.
Bulls v Stormers in Pretoria, 5pm on Saturday
The form of the teams suggests the home side are hot favourites, and the bookies agree. The Bulls seem to be getting their game together at the right time, with their forwards and backs finding each other nicely last week against the Lions.
This particular fixture usually takes on a life of its own because of the special history of the north-south derby, with the underdogs often springing a surprise, but I don’t think it will be the case on Saturday.
Betting angle
The Bulls are tipped to win this game, but simply backing them to win won’t pay much of a dividend. If you put R100 down, the bookies will give you just R12 back plus your bet. That is not worth your while.
A more profitable option is to explore the handicap. There is better value on the Bulls winning by at least 7.5 points. If you put R100 down, you will get your money back plus win R40.
Other URC matches
Munster v Edinburgh, Friday 9.35pm: Munster to win
Zebre v Dragons, Friday 9.35pm: Zebre to win
Leinster v Cardiff, Saturday 5pm: Leinster to win by at least 12.5 points
Ulster v Scarlets, Saturday 7.15pm: Ulster to win
Connacht v Benetton, Saturday 9.35pm: Connacht to win
Glasgow v Ospreys, Saturday 9.35pm: Glasgow to win by at least 9.5 points
