The government will not come to a standstill if the Budget is not passed by Parliament in April, but there is a likelihood of the collapse of the Government of National Unity (GNU) or emergence of reconfigured coalition government.
The worst scenario in the event that parties don’t reach an agreement will be to call fresh elections to elect a new government.
This is according to political parties and a political scientist in the wake of the opposition to the Budget that was tabled for the second time by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana.
It has been referred to parliamentary committees for deliberation and scrutiny before the two Houses of Parliament pass or reject it on April 2 amid the expressed dissatisfaction with its current form, especially the inclusion of VAT increase for the next two years.
Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni said it was up to the National Assembly to decide how they want to fund the government programmes.
“They can amend or send it back to Cabinet for it to be reworked with indicators of what they want to see,” Ntshavheni stated.
She said the Public Finance Management Act provided for the funding of government programmes if the Budget was not approved.
“We will use the old approved Budget to work until a new Budget is passed,” she said.
DA spokesperson on finance Mark Burke agreed that even if an agreement can’t be found on the Budget without majority support, the government will not come to a complete standstill.
“For the next year after a Budget was not passed, government would be able to continue functioning with 45% of the funds in the first four months and not more than 10% thereafter, and no new projects,” Burke said.
He described the situation as “fiscal cliff, but not an operational and administrative cliff for the country”.
“This government will continue to function regardless of how reckless the ANC might be,” Burke added.
But DA leader John Steenhuisen is adamant his party could not sign off on a Budget that did not fundamentally speak to the growth and jobs agenda in South Africa.
“We hope that in the coming weeks, there can be further negotiations, and we can try and find a way, but whatever way you cut and dice it, we will not lend our vote to any Budget that doesn’t speak to growth and jobs,” Steenhuisen said.
Both the EFF and MK Party want amendments to it.
“The EFF calls on all MPs and opposition parties to engage in collective and necessary bilateral engagements across the party lines, utilising the Money Bills Amendment Procedures and Related Matters Act, 2009 to amend the proposed fiscal framework and revenue proposals contained in the budget,” said the party in a statement.
On Friday, MK Party’s Des van Rooyen said: “We are more than ready to introduce amendments to this proposed Budget.”
Neither the EFF nor MK Party spokespersons could be reached as their cellphones either rang unanswered or switched off.
Addressing the media earlier this week, ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said the Budget will be passed, working with everybody in government.
“The ANC is prepared to talk and engage with all other political parties within the GNU and even beyond. We have always been open to talk to everybody, but talking to everybody does not mean we are submissive,” Mbalula said.
University of North West political analyst professor Andre Duvenhage speculated that a solution will be sought in behind the scenes negotiations within the GNU.
“So I don’t think we have reached the end of the road. There’s still room for the Cabinet to support the Budget changes,” Duvenhage said.
He also said that another scenario will be that the ANC will go on its own and function like a minority government.
“The ANC may negotiate with, among others, the EFF and the MK Party. Of course, what is clear is they need the support of one of the three bigger parties, And in that sense, they can follow the minority strategy.
“The other line can be that there’s no consensus behind the scenes that the GNU will fall apart, and we may see either a realignment of parties. Let’s say the EFF is coming in the place of the DA and maybe even the Freedom Front Plus, or whatever the case may be.”
Duvenhage added that the other scenario was to go for a new election.
He doubted an agreement between the ANC and the MK Party as the latter’s direct strategy is to get rid of President Cyril Ramaphosa.
The position of the EFF, which lost some of its leaders to the MK Party, was quite different.
“I am picking up signals coming from the EFF that they are prepared to negotiate with the ANC on the basis of certain conditions,” he said and referred to the realignment between the two parties in Gauteng.
“So I think if we look at some options outside of the Democratic Alliance, I think the EFF is the more likely,” he said.
However, he said the current parties in the GNU were in a better situation to survive the Budget debacle.
“I think that, maybe, a negotiated settlement behind the scenes is still the most likely one. I think it is possible that they may reach an agreement,” he said.
