OPINION: What happens from now on is going to mould not only the future of Namibia but will give the rest of Southern Africa a good lesson…This week’s elections in Namibia are less about change but all about survival, writes Vhahangwele Tsotetsi.
Namibia stands at the threshold of a political transition that might probably define what democracy will mean to it. The SWAPO had, since independence in 1990, become used almost interchangeably with governance and, until today, grown accustomed to power.
Closing in on the 2024 elections, SWAPO seems to be losing a more tenuous hold on power. Probably threatened with the loss of a parliamentary majority, the moment of reckoning for Namibia might be heralded as an acid test of democratic resilience.
This is not, however, a Namibian story alone: throughout Southern Africa, post-independence liberation movements once purveyors of hope and freedom find it difficult to meet modern day expectations of good governance.
From the ANC in South Africa to the BDP in Botswana, ruling parties taken down a peg or two by voters tired of corruption, economic stagnation, and broken promises.
As Namibia’s election may be the next chapter in this regional story, what happens afterward may be sure to reshape the country in ways many cannot predict.
A defeat for SWAPO would open the door for Namibia’s first coalition government. That might provide scope for renewal, but it may also herald instability and gridlock. The stakes are high: The ramifications are likely to reverberate well beyond Namibia’s borders.
Over the years, the grip SWAPO has on politics has been gradually loosening. The 2019 election proved quite telling: for the first time, SWAPO lost its two-thirds parliamentary majority, while President Hage Geingob barely went through, with 56.25% of the vote from his commanding 86.73% victory in 2014.
This seems to be propelled by broad disillusion with the party’s abysmal performance in dealing with chronic problems such as unemployment, inequality, and corruption.
But it has caused a deep-seated corrosion of trust-of which the Fishrot corruption scandal was and remains a prime example that genuinely shook Namibia.
Indeed, the scandal revolved around senior SWAPO officials accused of having received in excess of $10 million (around R181 million) in bribes for giving Icelandic firms rich fishing quotas.
Funds supposed to go toward job creation and uplifting communities in dire need had to be siphoned off for private gains.
The Fishrot scandal epitomised that very rot which the voters had come to identify with the leadership of SWAPO-a party more interested in enriching its elites than serving the people.
For a country where more than 32% of its population is unemployed, such a betrayal was unforgivable.
The political fallout has seen SWAPO struggle to maintain even a semblance of legitimacy, and its prospects going into 2024 are increasingly grim.
With the upcoming opposition parties, such as the IPC, PDM, and small ones such as the LPM, a coalition government’s probable establishment makes exploiting the decline of SWAPO ever more likely.
This hence constitutes a particular moment that opens up perspectives for a break in the monopoly on power so far held by SWAPO, while this situation also implies huge challenges at one and the same time.
Under the leadership of Panduleni Itula, the IPC has been an unexpectedly feisty creature on the campaign trail, touting an anti-corruption bottom-up agenda of empowerment.
A one time member of SWAPO and independent presidential candidate in 2019, Itula projects himself as the face of Namibia’s political renewal. By contrast, the PDM, Namibia’s oldest opposition party, offers a more traditional center-right way of governance.
With all these parties united in the goal of knocking SWAPO off its perch, the policy differences may cut across their efforts to put together a stable coalition: the populist rhetoric of the IPC against the more conservative approach of the PDM, even smaller parties focused on land reform and social justice, like the LPM.
The Namibian polity has no experience in coalition governance, and such transition from dominance by one party to a multi-party arrangement cannot be expected to be smooth.
Disagreement over policy priorities and power-sharing arrangement may lead to internecine fighting and paralysis that will weaken the coalition to effectively govern.
This might undermine public confidence in the new government and provide a window of opportunity for SWAPO to win back power.
Namibia thus epitomises the wider trend within Southern Africa, where all the liberation movements come under unprecedented pressure.
Across the border in South Africa, the ANC suffered an unprecedented defeat in 2024, returning only 40% of the vote. Once hailed as the party of Nelson Mandela, the ANC is now viewed as a synonym for corruption, factionalism, and economic mismanagement.
In Botswana, the more dramatic fall was that of the ruling Botswana Democratic Party.
Having been in power since independence, the BDP lost power in the 2024 elections to a coalition-led by opposition leader Duma Boko.
The peaceful transfer of power spoke to democratic maturity for the country, but it reflected another reality-that the liberation movements no longer had immunity against popular discontent.
For Namibia, with a smaller population and peculiar political topology, this becomes the hour of truth. The moment SWAPO loses the majority, Namibia enters virgin territory.
A coalition that works in Namibia may finally raise a new threshold for democratic governance in the region, proving that in the sophistication of political diversity and cooperation lies the path to success.
Yet another way-a little slip, and Namibia may be thrown into chaos, weakened institutions, and loss of decades of development.
This week’s elections are far more than a litmus test for SWAPO; it is a referendum on democratic resilience in Namibia. Will the opposition seize this moment, put up a coalition able to deliver promises and respond to the needs of ordinary Namibians? Will SWAPO, if thrown into opposition, be able to rethink and return to its revolutionary ideals?
It hardly gets graver for Namibian voters: unemployment, entrenched inequality, and underperforming public services cry out for brave and capable governance.
The scandal of Fishrot showed what happens when there is complacency and unfettered power, but it showed accountability and reform.
At the polls, Namibia stands at an electoral crossroads.
Accountability and political contestation have become the order of the day, the new language at the political discourse table, as the liberations’ narrative gives way.
What happens from now on is going to mould not only the future of Namibia but will give the rest of Southern Africa a good lesson, for it is adapt or perish with the liberation movements.
This week’s elections in Namibia are less about change but all about survival.
* Vhahangwele Tsotetsi is an award-winning youth leader, social entrepreneur, and political consultant with a degree in Political Science and International Relations from the University of Johannesburg, and the founder of Project YouthSA.
** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of or Independent Media.
Opinion
