In a season marked by environmental hurdles, South Africa has recorded a remarkable wheat harvest of 2.05 million tons for the 2023-24 marketing year, exceeding the five-year average of 1.98 million tons.
This achievement underscores the resilience of the nation’s agricultural sector, particularly in light of the severe floods that hit the Western Cape in September 2023, which raised concerns about substantial crop losses.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz), yesterday emphasised the significance of this year’s harvest, especially since the Western Cape typically contributes nearly two-thirds of the country’s wheat crop.
“Despite the initial fears of crop damage due to the floods, the wheat fields displayed remarkable recovery towards the end of the season, resulting in a commendable yield,” Sihlobo stated.
However, the good news of increased production has not aligned with stable import levels. The nation saw a 15% rise in wheat imports, totalling 1.93 million tons for the same period.
Notably, by the end of September 2024, these imports had played a crucial role in stabilising stocks, boosting the opening stocks for the new season to 753 000 tons, representing a 34% increase from the prior year.
As the 2024-25 winter crop season begins, Agbiz has forecast a slight decline in overall wheat production to 1.96 million tons, a decrease of 4% compared to the previous season.
While the Western Cape anticipates a larger harvest than last year, challenges persist in other key wheat-producing provinces such as the Northern Cape, Limpopo, and the Free State, where reduced area plantings and poor yields are expected due to various factors.
A key contributor to these lower outputs is the severe mid-summer drought that affected many of these provinces.
Sihlobo explained that as winter wheat sowing commenced in May, many farmers were cautious.
“Farmers faced a downbeat mood concerning soil moisture availability, leading to fewer plantings in anticipation of potential challenges in yields,” he noted.
In light of the forecast lower national production, one would expect wheat imports to increase. Yet the latest estimates suggest imports may decrease by 7% to 1.80 million tons, aligning closely with the five-year average.
Sihlobo attributed this unexpected trend to the substantial opening stocks, bolstered by previous season imports which allowed local importers to take advantage of favourable global wheat prices.
Looking ahead in the 2024-25 production season, Sihlobo expressed cautious optimism as crop conditions across many regions appear favourable. In fact, the Crop Estimates Committee has made a minor upward adjustment to the expected harvest, now projecting it at 1.96 million tons—a 1% increase from previous estimates.
Sihlobo also outlined the anticipated role of imports in the broader wheat consumption landscape.
“Imports are likely to comprise 47% of South Africa’s annual wheat consumption,” he explained, confident that sourcing these imports will not pose challenges given ample global wheat supplies.
The International Grains Council anticipates global wheat production to reach 798 million tons, the second largest on record, suggesting that global prices may remain moderate in the coming months—a promising prospect for importing nations like South Africa.
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