By George Devenish
It is unfortunate that South Africa has experienced no ‘new dawn’ as promised by President Ramaphosa when he was elected to the highest office in the land.
Unfortunately, most informed commentators are of the viewpoint point that he has proved to be a bitter political disappointment for the long suffering people of this great land. Also, these political commentators are of the viewpoint that as a country and as a people, we are in a state of chronic unprecedented political and economic crisis since the inception of the democratic era. This started with the introduction and operation of the interim Constitution on April 27,1994.
We faced our darkest hour, which ensued with the attempted insurrection that occurred at the beginning of July last year. It resulted in the deaths of more than 350 persons, and the destruction of property worth billions of Rand.
Besides the loss of life and property, the attempted treasonable insurrection has had a devastating effect on the morale of our people and the instigators of this insurrection have as yet not been prosecuted, although their identity is apparently known.
Ramaphosa’s policy of ANC factional appeasement
The president has adopted a policy of appeasement, in endeavouring to preserve the unity of the irredeemably fractured ANC, resulting in a paralysis of government, and all the disastrous consequences that this has both for South Africa and its people.
The question that I discuss in this piece is whether, in our darkest hour, there is a metaphorical silver lining amidst all the gloom and doom that now prevails? To answer this question, it is necessary to consider the significance of certain important dates and events.
The ANC’s elective conference in December
First, the ANC will hold its elective conference in December where it will elect a president for a further five year period. This election of the ANC will be of vital importance for the future of our country.
Despite the bitter disappointment that most commentators and informed persons in South Africa hold in relation to the political conduct of president Ramaphosa, there does not appear to be a credible ANC politician to replace him. He represents the ‘democratic/resource driven’ faction of the ANC, in contrast with the other faction, designated as the Radical Economic Transformation (RET) faction.
It is cogently submitted that the election of a candidate of this RET faction, the fate of which appears to be in decline and eclipse, would be an unmitigated disaster for the country and its people.
In fairness to Ramaphosa, his election in 2017 to the office of president of the ANC, by a small majority, placed him in an invidious position as party leader and ultimately as the president of South Africa. Furthermore, his own political disposition as a politician is one of caution and extreme circumspection, which has resulted in a strategy of drift, with all its serious consequences for the body politic and the economy of South Africa.
The consequences of the result of Ramaphosa’s election at the elective conference and general election of 2024
However, should Ramaphosa be elected as the president of the ANC in December, with a convincing majority of ANC delegates, his position will be strengthened and as a result, he may be able to demonstrate greater resolution and determination required of a president in South Africa to govern the country and take us forward.
This may not be a silver lining, about at least, I submit, a glimmer of light in the darkness that now, encompasses our future as people and country.
Another vitally important date is that of the general election that must take place in 2024. For some time, the ANC has been experiencing declining support from the electorate. For the first time in its history since 1994, its support dropped below 50% of the electorate. It is submitted that this decline will continue to take place and that at the election in 2024, the ANC may well not secure 50% of the vote. This would mean that to be in government, it would have to enter a coalition with another, or other parties.
It is submitted that any kind of arrangement or coalition with the EFF would also be an unmitigated disaster, as a triumph for the RET faction within the ANC.
In contrast, a political arrangement or coalition with the DA and smaller political parties committed to a resource driven economy, could constitute an important step in the formation of a Government of National Unity. This could open an entirely new political scenario for South Africa, where political parties’ divide is premised on their economic policy, rather than based on race and personalities. Although this may not constitute a silver lining, it is also a possibility and offers a glimmer of light.
Two other important dates from Ramaphosa’s Sona address and its consequences
There are two other important dates that could influence the strategy of the government, which arose from President Ramophosa’s Sona address.
The president committed himself, firstly, to a social contract with the people of South Africa within 100 days, and secondly that he would act in relation to the consequences flowing from the Zondo Report on State Capture in June of this year. These are both glimmers of light.
The president also made an important economic and ideological statement when he said, “we all know that it is the private sector that creates jobs and not government”.
Although this is implied in his often stated belief in a resource driven economy, it’s direct statement in his Sona address is a political and ideological statement of inordinate importance for South Africa, it’s politics and the economy.
Ramaphosa will probably be elected as president of the ANC for a second term. The RET faction of the ANC will undoubtedly put up a candidate of their own. However, at this juncture of time, there does not appear to be a credible candidate for this ANC faction.
Is there a silver lining?
In this regard Peter Bruce, in his column in The Sunday Times (February 20), made the following prognosis for the political future of the country by stating that: ‘Post 2024 could a 45% ANC and 23% DA make a difference. There are 1 000 000 qualifiers. I know, but the country needs a stable government.’
The publication, in its comment on Bruce’s conclusion, informs us that ‘[u]nder Steenhuisen the DA is clearly trying to position itself as a potential ANC coalition party.’ This is also merely a ray of light? Do these rays of light that I have pointed out, speculative as they are, constitute a silver lining?
*George Devenish is a professor emeritus at UKZN and one of the jurists who assisted in drafting the Interim Constitution in 1993.
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