When will Northern Ireland next go to the polls?

Voters in Northern Ireland have avoided a return to the polls before Christmas.

But if the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) continues to refuse to reform an executive, the Northern Ireland secretary will remain under a duty to call another assembly election next year.

Legislation setting new deadlines is now in force, but it is possible those dates could end up drifting.

The next local government elections could also be rescheduled due to a clash with King Charles III’s coronation in May.

Council elections in Northern Ireland take place every four years and the next one is currently scheduled for Thursday, 4 May 2023.

However, the decision to hold King Charles III’s coronation ceremony two days later has put a spanner in the works.

Unlike in Great Britain where council elections are also happening, results in Northern Ireland will not be counted overnight.

Counting is not due to begin until the Friday morning.

During the last council elections in 2019, counting continued well into Saturday evening.

The process can take many hours as results are determined using the proportional representation system of Single Transferable Vote (STV).

The DUP and the Alliance Party’s deputy leader, Stephen Farry, have asked if government will change the date of the election to ensure it does not clash with the coronation events, which a number of local politicians would be expected to attend.

Yes, the law allows for this to happen.

It was even referenced by Northern Ireland Minister Lord Caine on Monday when asked by peers if the government intended to do so.

He pointed to Section 84 of the Northern Ireland Act, the legislation underpinning Stormont’s institutions after the Good Friday Agreement peace deal was reached in 1998.

This power allows Mr Heaton-Harris to change the date of a council election.

Lord Caine did not commit outright to maintaining the current 4 May date.

Instead, he told peers that the timing of local government elections would be considered in due course, and that there was a “short window” to reach a decision.

It is not clear how short or long that window is but it is understood the Electoral Office would need clarity in early 2023, before it begins notifying schools and other centres of the requirements around polling day.

On Thursday, the Northern Ireland secretary also confirmed the government is “taking soundings” on whether to change the date of next year’s council election. He said that decision would be made after he had spoken to all the political parties at Stormont about it.

After Mr Heaton-Harris decided not to call a Stormont election before Christmas, he introduced legislation to delay the deadline for reforming a power-sharing government.

It put in place two new dates: initially 8 December, with the option of a six-week extension until 19 January.

In the event that talks between the UK and EU have not made progress on the Northern Ireland Protocol – the reason the DUP has protested and blocked Stormont from functioning – the secretary of state could then face another big decision.

Would he at that point follow through on his legal duty to call a fresh election within 12 weeks, at the latest taking place on 13 April?

That seems an unlikely prospect, given it would fall just three days after the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement.

Events marking the anniversary are already being planned and there is speculation of a visit to Northern Ireland by US President Joe Biden.

The government could then opt to introduce legislation to push back further the deadline for restoring the executive, although this is an option it said it was not considering for now.

If the executive is not restored and an assembly election is not further delayed, the government could choose to hold it and the local government elections on the same day.

In 2014, council and European Parliament elections were held on the same day although counting of the results took place on separate days.

Carrying out similar plans next year would be less than ideal for electoral staff if they had to manage two counts concurrently.

The prospect of 850 council candidates and more than 200 assembly runners canvassing at the same time could also prove challenging.

Difficulties aside, we can rule very little out and it will be up to the government to decide the dates.

For now, watch this space.

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