Sky Bet Chase: Full runner guide and expert verdict from Sky Sports Racing senior analyst Jamie Lynch for Doncaster feature

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Sky Sports Racing senior analyst Jamie Lynch gives his expert verdict on every contender for the historic Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster on Saturday.

Back in August, the BHA Jump Pattern Committee announced some modifications to the programme, more rebranding than rebuilding for now, such as re-categorising 11 handicaps with listed status as ‘Premier’ Handicaps. The Sky Bet Chase was one of those races elevated.

First run some 75 years ago, in 1948, and known then and for a long while as the Great Yorkshire Chase, the Sky Bet Chase, live on Sky Sports Racing on Saturday, is one of the staples of the season, worth £100,000, and such prize-money has drawn a dozen high-end handicappers. Let’s go through them…

Watch the Sky Bet Handicap Chase from Doncaster live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 535) on Saturday January 28.

Ga Law

Jockey: Jonathan Burke; Trainer: Jamie Snowden

Only one top-weight has won this (OK Corral in 2020) since the turn of the century but, to be frank, this edition isn’t so stacked at the top end as most Sky Bet Chases – just three horses are running off marks above 140 – and so Ga Law’s class could count for something more, an unquantifiable quality.

His new rating of 150 is robust, a minimum if anything, achieved in winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham where he beat French Dynamite (second only to Fakir D’Oudairies in a Grade 2 last weekend) and Midnight River, who himself won another ‘Premier’ Handicap at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.

What’s more, Ga Law’s star is still rising. As a seven-year-old who’s had just nine races, interrupted by a 20-month absence, and the way he finished at Cheltenham suggests he’ll relish this new distance of three miles, and maybe more.

He’s entered in the Gold Cup as well as the Ryanair. In simple terms, even giving weight all round in the handicap, he might just be too good for this lot.

Windsor Avenue

Ross Chapman; Brian Ellison

Assessing any horse involves the balancing act of pros and cons, in the context of probability as implied by the betting. The positive for Windsor Avenue is clear and conspicuous: he won this race last year (at 40/1) off a 2 lb higher mark than he now has. But that’s outweighed by the negatives of pulling up on four of his five starts since.

His fourth to L’Homme Presse in the Rehearsal at Newcastle in November shows there’s still some ability and appetite in him, but that’s only a sliver of light in an otherwise overcast last 12 months. Backing him to double up is a complete leap of faith.

Elvis Mail

Bruce Lynn; Nick Alexander

The common denominators of his two chase wins are a mark of 137 in 0-135 company at Ayr over two-and-a-half miles on testing ground: and none of those variables are in play here. His hardship outside of his comfort zone was highlighted at Aintree last time when he was an unthreatening sixth at this sort of level.

It feels like an experiment rather than a plan that he’s trying something new with the trip at Doncaster, but the fact of the matter is that he’s never really looked a three-miler.

Off a mark in the 140s, he needs a lifetime best, and it would be a surprise if it materialised under these circumstances.

Mister Coffey

Nico de Boinville; Nicky Henderson

Something of a ‘nearly’ horse over fences, yet to win a chase but runner-up four times, including at the Cheltenham Festival (Kim Muir) and his reappearance at Chepstow.

On those occasions he traded odds-on in-running before being beaten, taking the total to four times that he’s done so, getting a reputation for flattering to deceive.

Nevertheless, there’s undoubtedly upside to him, being a second-season chaser from a top yard and coming in fresh, with exactly the tools for a job like this, at least up to a point.

He’s a good bet to be bang there at the third-last, but he tends to do more on the bridle than off it. In that regard, though, there’s more than a passing resemblance to the stable’s 2020 winner of the Sky Bet Chase, OK Corral.

Demachine

Caoilin Quinn; Miss Kerry Lee

Hasn’t quite lived up to his early promise, not the sum of his parts, but some parts suggest he can impact in a race like this, more so than he showed in last year’s Sky Bet Chase when a well-beaten tenth at just 5/1: he’s 2 lb lower now, plus the worthwhile 5lb claim of Caoilin Quinn.

Failed to fire at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day but his two prior performances were amongst his best, albeit at short of three miles, which the evidence suggests may stretch him.

Backing him comes with risks, regards his stamina and his mood, but on raw ability he’s one of the livelier longshots in the race.

Cloth Cap

Brian Hughes; Jonjo O’Neill

If it seems a long time ago that he was one of the shortest-priced favourites for the Grand National (11/2) then that’s because it was, approaching two years, and the water that has flown under the bridge since has been mostly murky.

The plus points are his reduced mark (lowest in 27 months) and the booking of Brian Hughes, for the first time, who might be just the man to smuggle him into contention, but Cloth Cap will have to turn back time because his default setting nowadays is a weak finisher.

Tea For Free

Lilly Pinchin; Charlie Longsdon

Nothing short of a revelation over fences, unbeaten in four starts, by an aggregate total of 30 lengths, rising 33lb in the handicap, and overlaying the stats is the style, he and Lilly Pinchin a joy to watch in bold-jumping, eager-galloping rhythm.

Made light of the apparent hike in class in a Newbury handicap last time, but therein lies the rub: Newbury was fairly light for the grade, the best rival rated 134, whereas now Tea For Free faces six rivals better than that, much better in the case of Ga Law. The point is that, whether or not he can pull out more, expressing it in this biggest and best field he’s faced so far might be difficult to do.

Undersupervision

Sam Twiston-Davies; Nigel Twiston-Davies

His career curve is far more stuttering than smooth, resulting in trust issues, a hard horse to catch right, but his best-ever day came on his one and only visit to Doncaster in last season’s Grimthorpe Chase over three-and-a-quarter miles, a trip he’s kept to ever since, while only once showing anything like his form (third at Cheltenham in early-December).

The stronger the gallop the happier he and Sam Twiston-Davies will be, as stamina is the strength of Undersupervision, on his better days, but what matters most is his frame of mind.

Java Point

Ciaran Gethings; Tom George

Marginal gains as a chaser, his happy habit of nudging up his rating every start generating a record of three wins and four placings from just eight goes over fences, doing his best whatever the track or trip, running well for second the once he came to Doncaster.

No issue that he’s got a different rider, Ciaran Gethings, as Java Point is so straightforward and sure-footed, bound to give his backers a run for their money, but he now seems fairly fixed in the handicap off 133, making him vulnerable to both lurkers and improvers.

Shanty Alley

Conor O’Farrell; Ben Case

New lease of life this season, though might have missed his window of winning opportunity as he’s gone up 9lb for his two seconds at Wetherby and Newbury, and those handicaps were at a lesser level than this one.

Was due to contest the Surrey National at last weekend’s abandoned Lingfield meeting and maybe marathons are indeed his best means of expression these days, rather than a high-end three-mile handicap like this which will surely push his pressure points.

Cooper’s Cross

Sam Coltherd; Stuart Coltherd

Low-mileage eight-year-old, explaining when he’s still getting better bit-by-bit. Has looked very much at home at this sort of level at Aintree and Musselburgh the last twice, without those two-and-a-half-mile races really getting to the bottom of him.

The only previous try he’s had around three miles was a positive (runner-up at Newcastle), so it’s a surprise he hasn’t returned to it since – until now.

Given his general trajectory, coupled with a second attempt at the trip and a first go in cheekpieces, it’s easy to see him raising his game again, in which case he’s a possible for a podium finish, making more appeal than most outside of the high-rollers like Ga Law and Tea For Free.

Cap Du Nord

Jack Tudor; Christian Williams

Nothing much from him so far this season, but that’s his way, having his raced handpicked and targeted, the Sky Bet Chase no doubt on his radar again having finished third in it last year off a 4lb higher mark than he now finds himself.

Stable form (one winner since mid-November) stops short of presumptions that Cap Du Nord will suddenly roar back to life but, from a handicapping perspective, his chance speaks for itself.

JAMIE LYNCH’S VERDICT:

A Sky Bet Chase that has the whiff of a glorified 0-140 rather than the usual top-heavy handicap it has tended to be and, as such, GA LAW could well have a class edge that the rest can’t handle, needing to give away plenty of weight but certainly built for it, not to mention that moving up to three miles may be the ultimate making of him.

As an each-way play, Cooper’s Cross looks a lively one at longer odds, being an improver with unfinished business at this trip.