As Kenya inches closer to the 2027 general election, Raila Odinga stands at a critical political crossroads. Should he embrace the ruling regime, at the risk of being neutralised within the system, or should he rally the opposition and offer Kenyans a real alternative? The outcome of this dilemma will define his political future.
For decades, Odinga has been the face of opposition politics in Kenya. He has fought for de=mocracy, been incarcerated in the 1980s, and endured political betrayals while coming close to victory in four successive elections (2007, 2013, 2017, and 2022). His steadfast pursuit of justice has been remarkable.
However, in the wake of shifting political alliances, rising public discontent, and his recent loss in the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship race, the question arises: What next for Baba?
The current administration has made overtures toward Odinga, widely seen as an attempt to politically disarm him ahead of 2027. Some argue that engaging with President William Ruto could allow Odinga to secure a legacy of unity and national cohesion. However, history suggests that every strong opposition leader absorbed into government weakens the opposition and undermines democracy. If Odinga were to join Kenya Kwanza, what role would befit his experience?
If Baba were to take a position, it should be with the strategic intent of dismantling Kenya Kwanza from within, much like he did with Kanu in 1999, leading to a decisive defeat in the subsequent election. Meanwhile, the opposition, led by Kalonzo Musyoka, Eugene Wamalwa, and others, must rise to challenge the government’s excesses and represent the millions of Kenyans struggling with economic hardship.
Kenya Kwanza has often praised Odinga’s leadership, especially during his AUC bid. If they truly recognise his capabilities, the logical offer would be to support his presidential bid in 2027. Otherwise, the praises appear self-serving. Engaging him in government risks reducing him to just another cog in the political machine. Is that the legacy Kenyans want for one of their most seasoned politicians?
Kenya Kwanza has branded Odinga as a great leader Africa failed to elect as AUC chairperson. If they genuinely believe in his leadership, why not allow him to lead at home?
Changing landscape
Having lost the AUC election, what meaningful position could Kenya Kwanza offer him beyond the presidency? No clear role has been proposed, leaving Odinga with only one viable path—running again in 2027. However, his unpredictability has always been a defining feature of his political career. Could this trait fuel his political resurgence?
For the first time in years, circumstances appear to favour Odinga.
Generation Z (Gen Z)—young, energetic, and increasingly disillusioned—has become a powerful force in Kenyan politics. Engaged in digital activism and mass protests, they demand real change. Could Odinga be the leader they seek?
This demographic is deeply dissatisfied with the political establishment, feeling that their needs—affordable education, employment opportunities and economic fairness—have been sidelined. Their activism challenges the status quo, and Odinga could emerge as the rallying figure for their frustrations. Could he align his campaign with their aspirations and position himself as the alternative to the current administration?
Beyond youth activism, growing public discontent presents an opportunity for Odinga. High cost of living, unfulfilled campaign promises and a widening economic gap have left many Kenyans frustrated. Across the country, people are searching for a credible alternative. The question is: Can Odinga be that alternative?
As Kenya struggles with a sluggish economic recovery, many voters feel abandoned. Rising unemployment and struggling businesses have fuelled demands for fresh leadership. Odinga could capitalise on this dissatisfaction and present a national renewal agenda. But does he have the vision, energy and strategy to harness this moment?
Additionally, his coalition recently declared itself the parliamentary majority following a ruling by a three-judge bench. If effectively leveraged, this could shape policies, challenge unpopular decisions, and solidify his role as the leading opposition figure. However, to mount a strong 2027 campaign, he must unite the opposition and create a formidable front against the ruling party. The question remains: Can he bring together a fractured opposition?
Odinga’s allies suggest that he has unfinished business in Kenyan politics. But what exactly does that entail beyond another presidential bid? Some argue his ultimate goal is electoral justice, ensuring every vote truly counts. Others believe he seeks a final chance to implement reforms he has long championed, such as constitutional amendments to restructure governance.
One thing is certain: Raila Odinga is not a passive politician. His career has been defined by persistence, reinvention, and resilience. If he runs, it will not be for personal ambition alone but for causes he has pursued for decades. His unfinished business could involve securing electoral reform, ensuring equitable resource distribution, and strengthening government accountability.
Could his final political act involve addressing Kenya’s systemic problems dating back to independence? How will he allocate his political capital to push for the reforms the country needs?
Politics is unpredictable, and recent events have added another layer of intrigue. One of the biggest surprises has been the warming relations between Odinga and impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. A recent social media post by Gachagua, praising Odinga and endorsing his AUC bid, has sparked speculation about a possible alliance. Could this be the beginning of a new political realignment? Gachagua’s praise highlights the respect even from least expected quarters and hints at potential collaboration. Given Gachagua’s history and Odinga’s political trajectory, any partnership would be complicated.
Another significant development was the camaraderie between Odinga and President Ruto after the AUC election loss. Their public exchange of pleasantries hinted at a possible truce. But was this merely political diplomacy, or is there a deeper strategy in play? Kenyans are keenly watching—could this signal the beginning of a long-term collaboration, or was it just a fleeting political moment?
One argument frequently raised against Odinga’s 2027 bid is his age. But is age a valid factor in leadership? Historical examples suggest otherwise. Abdoulaye Wade of Senegal won the presidency at 74, Donald Trump secured victory at 70, and Joe Biden assumed office at 78. If experience and vision matter more than age elsewhere, why should Kenya be different?
Clear strategy
Odinga’s age is not a weakness but an asset. With decades of political experience, he understands governance, diplomacy, and the aspirations of Kenyans better than most. If the public is ready for change, why should age be an obstacle?
His experience uniquely positions him to guide the country, having witnessed Kenya’s political evolution first-hand. His vast knowledge can be instrumental as the nation navigates a changing global and regional landscape.
If Odinga is to make a final bid for the presidency, he must do so with a clear strategy. His biggest mistake would be allowing the opposition to remain divided. History has shown that unified opposition alliances, such as NARC in 2002 can challenge the political establishment effectively. Can he bring all opposition voices together, including those who have drifted toward the government?
More importantly, he must articulate a compelling vision. What does he stand for in 2027? What solutions does he offer Kenyans? With the public yearning for change, Odinga’s challenge is to prove he is the right leader to deliver it.
The ball is in his court. Will he seize the moment? Kenya’s political landscape is ripe for transformation, and Raila Odinga’s leadership could be the key to unlocking it. However, success will depend on his ability to unite the opposition, reconnect with the electorate, and present a clear, transformative vision for a better Kenya.
