By BENSON KILONZI
Should the Senate on Thursday, October 17 ratify the impeachment of Deputy President Geoffrey Rigathi Gachagua as endorsed by the National Assembly last week, President William Ruto will be handed his greatest political test since assuming office two years ago in identifying his next Principal Assistant.
If the intention to send Gachagua home bears fruit, Ruto will be left at a crossroads with several slippery options at his disposal regarding Gachagua’s successor.
Even though the Constitution allows the President to pick from qualified Kenyans from whomsoever he wishes from any part of the country, political realities are compelling Ruto to focus on only two regions of the country.
The President is torn between sticking with the Mt Kenya region where his besieged deputy Rigathi Gachagua hails from or Western Kenya where he has continued to acquire fresh political partners in the last three years.
At the centre of punditry are factors relating to the President’s political survival in the countdown to the 2027 General Election and stability of the country and economic growth within the same period.
For a considerable period, the names that have consistently been floated from the Mt. Kenya region are those of Interior Cabinet Secretary Prof. Kithure Kindiki, Lands Cabinet Secretary Alice Wahome, Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, Kiharu Member of Parliament Ndindi Nyoro and his Kikuyu counterpart Kimani Ichung’wah.
The Western region has attracted the names of Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and to a peripheral extent, Co-operatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya.
However, since the last week’s recommendation by the National Assembly for the current Deputy President to be impeached, the bookies have restricted deliberations around the Gachagua succession to Mudavadi and Kindiki.
Kindiki has for the past one-and-a-half years, topped the charts of pollsters as the best performing and most visible Cabinet Secretary in the Ruto administration.
Youthful and intelligent, the professor of law is reputed as a consultative, calm, collected and listening public servant.
He has been described as the bona fide holder of the Deputy President’s office, having been the candidate of choice by the Mt Kenya political leadership in 2022 at a voting session in the then Deputy President William Ruto’s Karen residence, a decision that Ruto trashed and settled on Gachagua as his best bet.
However, lack of experience and the manhandling of protesters during the 2023 countrywide demonstrations spearheaded by the Opposition Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party and this year’s protests staged by the Gen-Zs in June and July, stand out as a huge dent to his political curriculum vitae as the debate on the Gachagua succession takes centre-stage.
The brutality unleashed on demonstrators during those protests and the now, the rampant abductions and disappearances of persons by suspected State agents could cast into headwinds his prospects of taking over from the immediate former Mathira MP during the vetting session in the National Assembly, especially from the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) lawmakers who have persistently been critical of his stewardship of the security docket.
On the other hand, Mudavadi has been in the cross-hairs of political observers ever since he and his Amani National Congress (ANC) staged what has come to be known as ‘The Earthquake’ on January 23, 2023 at the Bomas of Kenya in Nairobi.
On that day, Mudavadi hosted Ruto and his United Democratic Alliance (UDA) troops at a ceremony that marked the teaming up of the two political outfits as a joint force against the Azimio coalition headed by then President Uhuru Kenyatta and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
Observers have consistently argued that Mudavadi’s Earthquake is what in all practical purposes handed Ruto victory in the August 9, 2022 presidential contest, for it was after that memorable event that leaders from other political parties mustered the confidence to team up with Ruto in the countdown to that year’s elections.
Other leaders who partnered with Ruto after the ‘earthquake’ move by Mudavadi were Ford-Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula (now Speaker of the National Assembly), Maendeleo Chap Chap leader Dr. Alfred Mutua (now Labour Cabinet Secretary), Democratic Party of Kenya leader Justin Muturi (now Public Service Cabinet Secretary) and Pan African Alliance (PAA) leader Amason Kingi (now Speaker of the Senate), among others.
During the 2022 General Election, the Mt Kenya region gave President William Ruto the highest number of votes compared to other parts of the country.
It is against that background that leaders and the electorate from that region are loudly demanding that should Gachagua be impeached and therefore exit office as Deputy President, then Ruto should automatically pick his replacement from the same region, with Kindiki topping the list.
On the other hand, though Mudavadi’s Western region did not vote for Ruto to a man as did the Mt. Kenya area in 2022, political analysts argue that Mudavadi is the perfect person to fill the void to be created by Gachagua’s exit.
The observers note that even though the Mt. Kenya region massively voted for Ruto in the last election, the electorate shifted their loyalty from the incumbent less than six months since Ruto assumed office.
Their contention is that at the moment what Ruto requires most is a loyal, steady and experienced hand that would enable him to concentrate on his constitutional responsibilities without having to be forced into ethnic fire-fights and mobilisation, and looking behind his shoulders every now and then for potential back-stabbers.
Said political analysts Joseph Kimau: “If you look at the role Ruto is supposed to play in the East African region, on the continent and on the global stage, he needs an experienced and loyal principal assistant who can fully deputise him and not one who will be salivating at his seat every minute of the day. On that score, Musalia Mudavadi registers higher marks than any other member of the Cabinet where he is the undisputed first-among-equals.”
Economics Prof Fred Ogolla says Mudavadi would serve Ruto well as a deputy were Ruto to settle on him as he (Mudavadi) would offer no threat to his boss.
“Mudavadi is a very committed and a very loyal servant. If Ruto wants to work in peace without any troubles behind his back and also consolidate the votes from the Western region to replace those that have abandoned him from the Mt. Kenya region, then Mudavadi is the most suitable choice available to him at the moment. Anything else would merely be a charade,” opines Ogolla.
His views are not dissimilar to those of lawyer Ishmael Nyaribo.
The outspoken lawyer told a TV talk-show on Sunday night that even though the Mt Kenya region gave Ruto majority votes in 2022, it was advisable for Ruto to focus on the future of the country and his re-election.
“From the Western part of the country Raila would obviously prefer to have Gladys Wanga while Ruto would settle on Mudavadi. It is time for Ruto to be pragmatic. He has to be reflective and pay attention to the interests of the country more than anything else and I think Mudavadi offers him that chance,” Nyaribo argued.
Since joining the Cabinet in 1989 at the age of 29 years when he was elected as MP for Sabatia, Mudavadi has served as Vice-President, Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister, Local Government Minister, Agriculture Minister, Transport and Communications Minister as well as Minister for Supplies and Marketing.
Mudavadi was also among the peace negotiators during the so-called Serena Talks brokered by the former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, now deceased, following the 2007/8 post-election violence.
The talks paved way for the formation of the Grand Coalition Government in which Raila was the Prime Minister and the late Mwai Kibaki the President, Mudavadi alongside Uhuru Kenyatta as deputy Prime Minister.
