Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia
A nationwide research conducted by the Institute of Progressive Governance (IPG) puts the presidential candidate of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, ahead of John Dramani Mahama, the presidential candidate of the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).
At a press conference held on Thursday, November 28, 2024, at the International Press Centre in Accra, IPG revealed that, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of NPP would emerge victorious with 50.2% if elections were held between October 15 and November 15, 2024.
“If elections were held between October 15 and November 15, the NPP’s Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia would have won with 50.2%. The research also shows that former President John Mahama would have garnered 47.3% in the elections. All the other presidential candidates would have got 2.5% in the elections,” Professor Isaac Boadi declared.
The NDC’s candidate, John Mahama, would have won more regions, nine in total, but Dr. Bawumia, with his seven regions, would win due to the numbers in the NPP’s strongholds, particularly the Ashanti and Eastern regions, the report revealed.
The sample size, according to Dr. George Domfe, a co-presenter of the report, was 27,445, and captured three electoral areas in all the 276 constituencies across the country.
According to the survey, regions likely to be won by the National Democratic Congress are Greater Accra, Western North, Upper East, Upper West, Savannah, Volta, Oti, Bono East and Northern.
The New Patriotic Party, according to IPG’s research, would win North East, Bono, Ahafo, Western, Central, Eastern and Ashanti regions if elections were being held between the times the research was conducted.
About 5.5% of respondents indicated that they were either not going to vote or were yet to take decisions on which parties and candidates to vote for.
Responding to questions after the research outcomes were presented, Dr. George Domfe emphasised that a similar entity like IPG consulted his team to conduct a nationwide survey prior to the 2020 elections, and the outcomes of the elections were not far from what the research outcomes indicated.
He urged the two main political parties to take the report and work with it as the 2024 elections are almost a week away.
The foregone comes on the heels of an earlier scientific survey led by Prof. Smart Sarpong, Director of Research and Innovation at the Kumasi Technical University, which said Dr. Bawumia was leading the presidential race with 49.1%, while Mr. Mahama of the National Democratic Congress followed with 45.8%.
The research findings showed that the independent candidate, Nana Kwame Bediako, is at 2.2%, and John Alan Kyerematen stood at 1.2%.
The other candidates collectively garnered 1.7%, the study, titled “Endline Report,” said.
Prof. Sarpong, speaking at a press conference, asserted that the data suggested that the 2024 elections could conclude in the first round, with the NPP having a higher likelihood of clinching victory if gains are consolidated.
“It is clear from this report that elections 2024 can be won at the first round by only one of the two leading political parties, with the NPP having a higher chance of clinching a first-round victory,” he stressed.
