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Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Global economic forecast may prompt revisions to Ghana’s targets

Member of Parliament for Sagnarigu, Atta Issah Member of Parliament for Sagnarigu, Atta Issah

The Member of Parliament for Sagnarigu, Atta Issah, has projected that countries around the world, including Ghana, may revise their economic targets following the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) global growth forecast of 3.3% for 2025, with a gradual decline to just above 3% over the next five years, well below historical averages.

According to the MP, who serves on Parliament’s Finance Committee, this projected slowdown is due to factors such as ageing populations, geopolitical tensions, and tighter financial conditions.

He noted that Ghana, currently under an IMF balance of payments support programme, could experience disruptions to its economic recovery. However, he emphasised that adopting homegrown solutions and implementing expenditure cuts, as demonstrated under the John Mahama administration, could help Ghana stay on a growth path.

Issah, who recently joined the Ghanaian delegation to the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., shared his insights via social media.

He described the experience as a valuable opportunity to learn from global participants and gain a deeper understanding of the Bretton Woods Institutions.

“As a member of the Finance Committee of the 9th Parliament of the Republic of Ghana, I needed to do myself some good by keeping an open mind, to learn, observe, and build strong relationships,” he stated.

On global debt concerns, the MP observed that the IMF is increasingly alarmed about rising public debt, projected to reach 100% of global GDP by 2030.

He stressed that emerging markets face rising borrowing costs and limited access to international capital markets, risks Ghana must address to maintain investor confidence.

Regarding trade tensions, Issah noted that the meetings highlighted uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, particularly from the Trump administration.

Despite multiple proposals, no trade agreements were concluded, raising concerns about the global economic outlook, particularly for countries like Ghana that maintain significant trade ties with the U.S.

On fiscal consolidation, he observed that Ghana has made notable progress, with the primary fiscal balance improving significantly. The government aims to achieve a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP in 2025 through enhanced domestic revenue mobilisation and expenditure rationalisation.

He urged continued commitment to this target, which he described as essential for macroeconomic stability.

Commenting on debt restructuring, Issah expressed confidence in Ghana’s ongoing efforts, including agreements with official creditors and Eurobond holders.

He noted that Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio, currently at 61.8%, is projected to fall to 55% by the end of 2025 following the successful completion of the debt exchange programme, a significant improvement over 2024 levels.

On the energy front, he highlighted the launch of the Energy Sector Recovery Programme, aimed at achieving financial sustainability. Key efforts include renegotiating contracts with Independent Power Producers (IPPs) to reduce costs and alleviate fiscal pressure.

He also expressed optimism that phase two of the Atuabo Gas Processing Plant would reduce gas imports and result in significant fiscal savings.

Turning to monetary policy, the MP commended the Bank of Ghana for its prudent approach, which has helped contain inflation and maintain financial sector stability. He pointed to measures such as recapitalising state-owned banks and rebuilding international reserves as critical to achieving these objectives.

Issah called on emerging markets to prioritise structural reforms to boost fiscal resilience, improve governance, and attract private sector investment, all of which he deemed essential for long-term growth.

On international support, he noted a strong call during the meetings for enhanced assistance from financial institutions to tackle challenges like weak domestic revenue mobilisation and limited access to capital.

He advocated for tailored, intensified technical support to help achieve sustainable development goals.

Addressing debt management, he emphasised the importance of effective strategies, including timely restructuring and fiscal discipline, to avoid debt distress and ensure economic stability.

He praised a recent announcement by the Finance Minister to amend the Public Procurement Act, requiring a commencement certificate before a project can begin. He said this would prevent the state from paying for unexecuted projects.

Finally, Issah underscored the role of agricultural mechanisation in reducing the debt burden and called for increased investment in the sector to support inclusive economic growth.

KA

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