The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a 4 per cent growth rate for Ghana by the end of 2025.
This revised forecast was captured in the IMF’s April 2025 Regional Economic Outlook Report, released on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.
The projected 4 per cent growth aligns with the figure presented in the 2025 Budget by Finance Minister Dr. Ato Forson in March.
Looking ahead, the IMF expects Ghana’s economy to grow by 4.8 per cent in 2026.
2025 Inflation Target Likely to Be Missed
The IMF is projecting an end-of-year inflation rate of 17.5 per cent for 2025, significantly higher than the government’s target of 11.9 per cent as stated in the national budget.
This suggests that the government could miss its inflation target for the year.
However, the IMF remains optimistic, forecasting a sharp decline in inflation to 9.4 per cent by the end of 2026, bringing Ghana closer to its long-sought single-digit inflation goal.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio to Rise Before Falling
Ghana’s total public debt stood at GHS 726.7 billion at the end of December 2024, representing 61.8 per cent of GDP.
According to the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise to 66.4 per cent by the end of 2025 before declining to 62.7 per cent in 2026.
The IMF programme targets a further reduction to 55 per cent by the end of 2028.
The head of the IMF Mission to Ghana, Stéphane Roudet, told Joy Business at the Spring Meetings that he is optimistic that Ghana will meet all key benchmarks, including the 2028 debt target, provided the country stays committed to programme conditions.
Foreign Reserves and Trade Outlook
The IMF also projects Ghana’s import cover to reach 3.6 months by the end of 2025 and 2026.
Additionally, the report revealed that exports to the U.S. account for about 1 per cent of Ghana’s total GDP.
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