Alongside trade volumes, economic output is expected to suffer. In its report published Wednesday in Geneva, the WTO forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) growth in North America — which it defines as the US and Canada — of just 0.4% this year, down from an earlier estimate of 2%.
North American exports are projected to fall by 12.6% in 2025, while imports are set to drop by 9.6%, according to the WTO.
Prior to US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, the organization had expected exports to rise by 2.2% and imports by 2.8%. Chinese exports to the US are now forecast to fall by 77% under the current scenario.
The impact on Europe is far less severe. The WTO expects exports to rise by 1% this year (down from 1.4%) and imports to increase by 1.9% (previously 2.1%). European GDP growth is now forecast at 1.2%, compared to a previous estimate of 1.4%.
The WTO analysis reflects conditions as of April 14. Since returning to the White House, Trump has announced a wide array of tariffs targeting various countries and sectors, although some have since been suspended. China has been the primary focus.
If the current scenario holds, the WTO expects the global volume of traded goods to shrink by 0.2%, a reversal from the 2.7% growth previously expected. If suspended country-specific tariffs are enacted after a 90-day pause announced April 9—and retaliatory measures follow—global trade volumes could fall by as much as 1.5%.
Global GDP is now projected to grow by 2.2% in 2025, down from the WTO’s earlier forecast of 2.8%.
GNA
PDC