Is the US heading into a recession?
US President Donald Trump tariffs don cause wildfires across global stock markets, but dis one mean say di world dey go into recession?
Di first tin to know na say wetin dey happun for di stock market no be di same as wetin dey happun for di economy – falling share prices no always dey mean say economic palava dey for fornt.
But sometimes e dey be like dat.
Wen very big stock markets fall like these, as e dey happun for UK, Asian and oda parts of di world, Very large falls in stock market values, e mean say di companies wey make up di stock markets for di world don carry out ogbonge review of dia future profits.
Wetin markets normally dey expect na say wen tariffs increase, di cost of dia products go rise and dia profits go reduce.
E no come mean say recession go go happun, but di chances of recession dey clearly much higher pass how dem be bifor Trump announce di most severe and wide-ranging tariffs wey di world don ever see in a century.
Economy of a kontri dey in recession wen di total of evritin wey di pipo and di goment spend or export shrink for three-months period back-to-back.
Between October and December last year, UK economy bin grow small wit 0.1% and di latest monthly data show say e shrink by di same amount for January.
However, as di stock market dey fall badly, e get some particularly gory and worrying casualties.
HSBC and Standard Chartered – wey operate for di intersection of international trade between east and west – bin go down more dan 10% overnight bifor dem recover some ground.
Oda warning signs no dey on stock markets but dem dey on di commodity exchanges.
Copper and oil prices dey considered barometers of global economic health.
Both of dem don fall more dan 15% since Trump drop im tariff bombshell.
Di world neva experience many global recessions.
Di 1930s, di aftermath of di Great Financial Crisis plus di panic around di pandemic get three rare examples of wen we see synchronised downturns in major economies.
E no sure say we go see something on dat scale dis time but many economic analysts don tok say di possibilities of recession for US, UK and European Union dey high.
On di plus side for UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, di goment borrowing costs dey likely to fall by around £5bn to £6bn a year as investors flock to di relative safety of government bonds.