Veteran pollster, Ben Ephson, has downplayed the prospects of any alliance outside the NDC and NPP emerging victorious in Ghana’s upcoming elections.
According to him, historical data and voter behaviour in Ghana point to the fact that no political alliance or meagre formed by minor political actors can cause an upset in the general elections.
Ben Ephson adds that the competition has always been between the NDC and the NPP, especially under the Fourth Republic.
Alan Kyerematen recently announced talks to establish a grand alliance for the 2024 general elections, involving political entities such as the National Interest Movement (NIM) led by Dr. Michael Abu Sakara Foster, a former flagbearer of the Convention People’s Party (CPP), along with other political entities and individuals.
Speaking on the Asaase Breakfast Show, Ben Ephson expressed doubt about the viability of such alliances.
“I think that it is going to be kind of difficult. If my memory serves me right, apart from the NDC and NPP, only one other candidate, independent or from a smaller party has gotten beyond 1%. That was Goosie Tanoh of the National Reformed Party (NRP).
“The nearest person to get to 1% was Paa Kwesi Nduom who got 0.99%. So it tells you that maybe someone will attend a small party rally but will spoil his vote by voting for NDC or NPP.”
Ben Ephson further explained that the current political landscape makes it challenging for a third force to succeed, suggesting that even if two or three independent candidates were strong, their cumulative votes might only reach around 3%, potentially leading to a run-off scenario.
ghanaweb.com