As the two main political parties engage in internal elections to select their presidential nominees for the 2024 general elections, the bigger concern of the candidates and their supporters has been, which candidates have the national appeal to upstage candidates from the two divides. From the stable of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), former President John Dramani Mahama is battling a former Finance Minister and Governor of Bank of Ghana, Dr. Kwabena Duffour and one-time Mayor of the Kumasi Metropolitan Assembly, Kojo Bonsu.
From a field of nine candidates, two candidates—Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen and Vice President, Alhaji Dr. Mahmudu Bawumia have emerged as the two front-runners in the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primary, although MP for Assin Central, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong has within the last four months, pushed to alter the two-man race to a three-horse race. And that is presenting a really interesting perspectives to the NPP race with pundits wondering, if Ken Agyapong’s surge has the potential of disrupting the Alan-Bawumia two-prong race.
Internal presidential nomination race
Before the candidates’ square-off for the major national elections, they first need to take care of their candidacy within their respective presidential primaries; and according to the Global Info Analytics (GIA), a world acclaimed research , former President, John Dramani Mahama will make light work of his two other leading challengers—Dr. Kwabena Duffour and Kojo Bonsu. GIA has been at the forefront of electoral predictions in the 2016 and 2020 elections, which were both won by the New Patriotic Party. The GIA polls cover the period March 31st to April 9th, 2023.
That is to suggest that before the General Elections, GIA wanted to find out the possible outcomes of the presidential primaries of the two parties. Indeed, the National Democratic Congress’ presidential hopeful, former President John Dramani Mahama, according to findings made by the Global Info Analytics leads all two other leading contenders by a far distance. It does seem a story similar to 2018, will unfold in this year’s NDC primary. In 2018, from a field of some five other candidates, Mr. Mahama pulled away from the pack with a resounding 94 percent votes, leaving Prof Joshua Alabi and the rest, to struggle for the remaining six (6) percent.
As per the GIA polls, in the run-up to the NDC primary on May 13, this year, Mr. Mahama is again in commanding lead of 93 percent, as against Dr. Duffuor’s four (4) and Kojo Bonsu’s three (3) percent respectively. There is however no clear-cut winner in the NPP primary, as the GIA’s search suggest, thus leaving the race wide-open for three candidates—Alan Kyerematen, Dr. Mahmudu Bawumia and Kennedy Ohene Agyapong. It’s even suggested in the report that the NPP primary may go to a run-off which prediction suggests former Trade Minister, Alan Kyerematen may pull out with a 54 percent win.
Vice President Bawumia, the polls submit, will be a very nominal winner over Alan in the NPP primary with Ken Agyapong coming a distant third. With the date for the NDC primary fixed for May 13th, this year, the NPP will choose a presidential nominee later in November 2023.
2024 General Elections (Presidential)
On the national elections, the former President Mahama leads Mr. Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen of the NPP with 54 percent to 40 percent, while six (6) percent claim they will vote for someone else. In the same polls, President Mahama also leads Vice President, Dr. Mahmudu Bawumia, 55 percent to 38 percent, with seven (7) percent indicating they will vote for someone else, although they were silent on the names of any such individuals. But one candidate whose rating has soared rather shockingly is NPP’s Kennedy Ohene Agyapong who trails Mr. Mahama 55 to 38 percent. As of January, this year Kennedy Agyepong trailed Mr. Mahama a far distance of 31 to 63 percent.
In all some 5,836 respondents were sampled from the 2020 electoral or voters’ register which the Global Info Analytics used as its ample frame. Thirty (30) percent constituencies from each region, according to GIA “was randomly selected and allocated the regional quota based on total voters in each of the constituencies.” That led to cross sectoral respondents selected randomly from 82 constituencies in all of Ghana’s 16 regions.
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