July 4 (UPI) — Residents in the Southeast are bracing for incoming Tropical Storm Elsa as AccuWeather forecasters estimate landfall close to Tampa, Fla.
Just a day after undergoing rapid intensification and becoming the first hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, Elsa returned to tropical storm status on Saturday as it charged between southwestern Haiti and Jamaica.
Forecasters continue to monitor this tropical storm as it approaches Cuba and the United States.
In its 8 a.m. EDT Sunday advisory, the National Hurricane Center said Elsa was about 70 miles east-northeast of Kingston, Jamaica, with sustained winds of 65 mph and moving toward the west-northwest at 13 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 125 miles from its center.
The storm has already been the blame for widespread damage, power outages and three deaths across the Caribbean, and is now on its way to the U.S. However, rainfall is forecast to diminish across Hispaniola and Jamaica on Sunday as Elsa moves into Cuba.
“The impacts from Elsa on the United States will likely depend on how the storm does over Cuba,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Thomas Geiger.
Geiger predicts Elsa will skirt just south of Cuba before turning north and moving over the island. A small shift in Elsa’s path would cause it to move northwest over Cuba for a longer period of time.
A hurricane watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic; Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara and Cienfuegos; and Jamaica.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for. Cayman Brac and Little Cayman, the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque and Havana; and the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas.
“The longer that Elsa travels over the warm Caribbean water, more likely the storm will maintain high-end tropical storm strength,” said Geiger.
Warmer water, like that of the Caribbean, fuels and strengthens tropical systems, while the friction that occurs when moving over land can weaken tropical systems.
After crossing Cuba, Elsa is forecast to shrink in size as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, which would keep a majority of the hazards to the western side of Florida, according to Geiger. The storm is expected to trek up along the western Florida coast before making landfall north of Tampa Bay.
Elsa is anticipated to produce its heaviest rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 15 inches, across portions of Cuba and Florida.
“Mountainous areas over the western Caribbean will be most susceptible to flash flooding and mudslides,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker.
As Elsa curves to the north early this week, rain is anticipated to spread into Florida and the rest of the southeastern United States. Rain over the southeastern U.S., especially areas that have 4 to 8 inches of rain, may cause flash flooding from Florida into southern South Carolina. A wide swath of at least 1 to 2 inches will spread from the Florida Peninsula into the Carolinas.
“We’re currently anticipating Tampa to receive 2 to 4 inches of rain and have a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet,” said Geiger. Winds can gust up to 40 to 60 mph.
Winds near where the center of the storm tracks in Cuba can reach 60-80 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 120 mph, according to Walker. These winds can bring damage to structures, along with downed trees and power lines.
AccuWeather meteorologists have rated Elsa a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes for the Caribbean due to the expected flooding, damaging winds and storm surge. The scale is a six-point scale with ratings that range from less than 1 to 1 to 5.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency for 15 counties across the state ahead of landfall in the United States. Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Pasco, Pinellas and Sarasota counties are all included under the state of emergency.
One of these counties, Miami-Dade, is where a condominium collapsed, killing at least 20 people and leaving over 120 others unaccounted for.
“All visitors should heed local evacuation orders if those orders are issued,” said DeSantis.
Tampa’s Mayor Jane Castor suggested residents clean up around their yards and make sure there aren’t any loose items around that could get blown by high winds.
“Now’s the time we’re starting to make a lot of those phone calls with different agencies just to make sure that if we did have to respond quickly in the next couple of days, everything is in place so that we could get moving and get people to safety quickly,” said Pinellas County Government Spokesperson Josh Boatwright.
AccuWeather forecasters urge residents to have an evacuation plan and prepare an emergency or hurricane kit, stocked with water, non-perishable food, chargers for electronics, batteries and a way to get information, like the AccuWeather App.
“One of the more recent hurricanes with a path that could remotely resemble Elsa’s projection near Florida, was Irma from September 2017,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Irma reached the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida as a potent Category 4 hurricane. The hurricane pushed northward on Florida’s west coast and caused 10 fatalities and $50 billion in damages in the U.S. with power outages that reached 7.5 million in Florida alone, according to the NHC.
“Elsa should lose wind intensity and become a tropical depression quite quickly once it makes landfall due to interaction with the land,” said Geiger.
However, it may restrengthen as it exits the East Coast into the Atlantic Ocean and could bring some rough surf, strong winds and rain to the Cape and Islands of Massachusetts as well as Nova Scotia at the end of the week.